Северокорейский ядерный кризис: возможные стратегии администрации Д. Трампа (policy analysis)

Екатерина Борисовна Михайленко, Владислав Дмитриевич Чернавских

Аннотация


Северокорейский ракетно-ядерный кризис в 2017 г. стал результатом совершенствования КНДР своего потенциала в области ракетных технологий. Кризис обострил отношения между США и КНДР. Обе стороны конфликта открыто заявляют о готовности применения ядерного оружия. Цель данной статьи – провести комплексное исследование возможных стратегий США в отношении северокорейского ядерного кризиса и выявить наиболее вероятный сценарий действий администрации США, основываясь в первую очередь на статистических данных, а также на анализе официального американского политического дискурса. В ходе данного исследования мы приходим к выводу, что вероятность военной эскалации кризиса крайне низка. Стратегия, избранная США, – это преимущественно экономическое и военное давление, принуждение к переговорам. Вовлечение России в переговорный процесс крайне маловероятно. США выбрали стратегию односторонних действий.

Ключевые  слова: КНДР, ядерно-ракетный кризис, политика, Д. Трамп, Ким Чен Ын, международная безопасность.


Полный текст:

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(c) 2018 Екатерина Борисовна Михайленко, Владислав Дмитриевич Чернавских